Mick Mulvaney, former Chief of Staff of the White House during the first Trump Administration and a former Congressman from South Carolina, is now the Executive Director of Sports Not Investing (GINI), an independent organization that pushes back against the growth of prediction markets in what used to be a place for sports betting.
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It’s a classic Washington thriller — two former Republican congressmen, a former Democratic congressman, and a former mayor — now standing on opposite sides of a pitched battle that could transform the fast-growing marketing industry.
The Lineups
Leading the markets side is the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM). On the board: Rep. Former Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) as president and CEO, and House Financial Services Committee chairman Patrick McHenry (R-NC) serving as a senior adviser.
On the opposing side stands Mick Mulvaney (R-SC), the former chief of staff of the White House, who is now the chief executive of gambling is not investing (GINI). He is backed by former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, a policy advisor to the American Gaming Association (AGA), as well as state casino and tribal gaming interests.
Main issue: Do CFTC-registered platform gaming-related event contracts such as Kalshi and Polymarket qualify as federally regulated products designed for price discovery, risk management, and data collection? Or is it a rebranded arcade under government regulation – complete with licenses, taxes, age restrictions and liability gaming protections?
Prediction Markets’ At-Bat
The industry says these platforms operate as well-regulated markets that come under the CFTC. “Prediction markets have always operated within a federal regulatory framework designed to promote transparency and protect consumers,” McHenry recently told Roll Call. “As these markets continue to grow, it is important that consumers and platforms have clear and consistent guidance.”
The market side warns that aggressive state-level challenges could lead to outsourcing and stifle innovation. The CFTC’s recent guidance and the August 2026 Notice of Proposed Securities Markets are growing government recognition that futures markets deserve special treatment — different from traditional gambling.
Former US Ambassador and former Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, DN.Y., current President and CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets.
Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Maloney emphasized the importance of information on these markets while drawing a sharp line against treating it as gambling: “When you bet, you will bet against the casino, and the casino wins when you lose.
The market side warns that aggressive state-level challenges could lead to outsourcing and stifle innovation. The CFTC’s recent guidance and the August 2026 Notice of Proposed Securities Markets are growing government recognition that futures markets deserve special treatment — different from traditional gambling. Companies in this area spent $14 million to attract the government by 2025, while Kalshi spent only $615,000, according to government files tracked by OpenSecrets.
The Brush-Back Pitch By Sports Gambling
Mulvaney and GINI hit back: “If it moves like a sports bet, it’s a sports bet.” Mulvaney told CNBC in March 2026: “The simple answer is that it’s a gamble. He added, “I’m buying a prediction contract, whatever it is, on the Lakers winning a basketball game. If you ask any normal person if it’s sports gambling, it is.”
Chris Christie, a policy advisor for the American Sports Association, spoke bluntly: “Don’t pretend it’s not gambling. He argues that the prediction platforms are “blatantly breaking the law” in many countries by operating outside of state sports regulation, threatening the integrity of sports, weakening consumer protection and damaging state taxes. The bottom line is that it is against the law, and it must be stopped.
In a related announcement, Polymarket opened a three-day pop-up space called “The Situation Room” at Proper 21 on K Street (March 20–22, 2026). GINI responded by parking a truck outside with a sign that read “Betting is not Investing” and a duck mascot proclaiming, “If it walks like a duck, it quacks like a duck, it’s a duck.” The two parties are also fighting on social media.
Trouble Ends
The argument escalated on March 23 when Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) are introducing the bipartisan Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. The bill would bar CFTC-registered platforms from listing gaming or casino-style contracts, restoring what supporters call proper state and tribal authority. A few days earlier, Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive Prediction Market Exchange partner and signed an important Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC.
“The new deals … are important steps in managing a new and rapidly growing marketplace,” said MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred. “Protecting the integrity of the game on the field is our top priority.”
Like Opening Day in baseball, the first game has already been played but the game has been going on for a long time. In congressional halls, regulatory offices, and social media, everyone is watching to see if the benches are clear or if the competition is fighting a long, hard fight. Some experts are predicting (or betting) that the Supreme Court will have to decide who has the power to regulate markets in the next year or two. GINI and CPM were both contacted for further comments; however, no one responded.
Notice: I don’t like stock market firms or sports betting companies.
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