That question ceased to be a hypothesis last week.
US sends Iran 15-point ceasefire plan; Tehran called it “maximalist and unreasonable” and denied that talks were taking place. Oil rose above $106. The White House quietly started making the $200 model. Since then, Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure, Iran’s military has continued its offensive in the Gulf, and the freeze on oil prices is expected to expire later this month.
Regardless of any hope that this will be a short war is fading. And with it, the assumption that economic damage will also be there. The director of BlackRock Larry Fink said that high oil prices for a fixed period will cause a “big and terrible recession” – which, according to the World Marketing Research Center, can eliminate about $ 50 billion spent by advertising this year – and another 44 billion next. It is the worst case scenario. Or at least it was.
“When we started looking at it [the forecast]we were paying attention to the development of the Gulf and the impact it could have. But with each passing week there is a growing sense that this is going to be a problem,” said Alex Brownsell, head of News at Warc Media.
So much so that what looked like Warc’s pessimistic forecast is starting to resemble its original case. This depends on the severity of the conflict as it is the type of stress it has on the business. Oil crises like this are stagflationary, meaning that GDP falls even as inflation rises. Ebiquity places an ad multiplier of 1.7x – so for every 1% of GDP, ad spend takes 1.7%. With economic flexibility, retailers can reduce fees and influence their exits. Stagflation does not provide an exit.
“If I were an advertiser now, I would think about contingency planning – putting some budgets on ice, just in case,” said Thomas Bailly, head of international growth at ad tech vendor readpeak. We haven’t seen the impact of that on the economy yet. But the questions begin.
However, the picture is not the same. The relationship between economic stress and advertising spending is not as direct as it once was – both have declined since 2020. Most advertising now is about availability: making sure that products appear in the right places at the right time. When times get tough, brands don’t abandon paid search and marketing media. If anything, they rely heavily on performance. Which means that large swathes are, for now, largely protected. The floor is higher than it was in 2008. But that does not mean that everyone benefits equally.
Bailly said: “Predictability has become a luxury. And when it’s gone, accuracy remains. Secure your goals, protect your safe havens by relying on implementing content that maintains its value as the timeline changes beneath your feet.
Traders, in other words, are taken care of. They look at major economic crises to find out how this happens: an energy crisis raises the cost of transporting goods, following inflation, consumer contracts and in recessions, stock markets kick in. At that time, the world has bigger problems than what brands can do campaigns. But the result that advertising would use would be real, and so would the consequences, from job cuts to mergers.
History gives partial weight. During the Gulf War of 1990, oil prices rose 150% or more – then normalized within six months once the conflict was resolved and some producers increased. Ebiquity’s analysis of similar disruptions consistently shows that vendors who held or expanded investments during periods of uncertainty gained market share faster and delivered longer-term ROI than those who bought. The risk, in other words, isn’t just big – it’s about over-dealing.
The difference this time is that the infrastructure is being destroyed. Refineries, pipelines and tank stations. That changes the normalization calculus. The 1990’s playbook assumed that the bottom power supply was still there once the firing stopped. That thought is hard to do now.
Chris Mele, founder and managing partner, at the Siberian center, gave the best point: “We have noticed the recent reluctance in terms of larger investments in new methods. That said, there are brave organizations and leaders looking at 5-10 years who are really moving forward with a heavy risk / reward analysis, but you can call the check many times before that window closes.
For now, the feeling is not as scary as the sudden thing. Funding continues. Campaigns are being drawn. Organizations are being asked how quickly they can stand up. Savvy users are switching to media spending without cancellation fees or long retention periods – retaining discretion rather than commitment. Sir Martin Sorrell has seen enough: he calls for a reduction in income at S4 Capital for the first quarter.
“Among the growth drivers and challenges for advertising and media in 2025 and 2026 is the impact of major political conflicts around the world, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas war, China’s ongoing threats against Taiwan, global tariff wars, Israel and the US attack on Iran and the rest of the Middle East, Patrick P. Firm recently released Global Consumer Media Usage Forecast 2026-2030.
“These big trends have a big impact on the media business – in a positive and negative way – depending on whether you follow three industry KPIs.”
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