In letters sent on Sunday, the NFL asked predictive market makers such as Kalshi and Polymarket not to offer business on events that can be easily manipulated or pre-selected, including what announcers say during announcements, which celebrities enter games and the upcoming draft.
The NFL says it wants to protect participants from “unfair and unwanted accusations” related to gambling and predicted markets and opposes four types of offers: those that can be easily manipulated by one person such as unexpected goals, known in advance as fixed picks, player signings and coach firings, anything related to the security and risks of his “player”.
Much of the NFL’s opposition to the letter is similar to what it’s asking traditional sportsbooks to ban, but the league also raised concerns about selling broadcaster markets and celebrity presence, two propositions that sportsbooks typically don’t offer. Millions of dollars were sold to Kalshi based on what advertisers said and which celebrities appeared in the Super Bowl.
“Some people will have information … to share,” NFL vice president Jeff Miller told ESPN. “We try to stay as far as we can from other types of information wagers that may exist in this area.”
Miller said the letter follows months of negotiations between the NFL and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulator that oversees futures markets. The CFTC and Major League Baseball recently agreed to share information and meet regularly to discuss the types of markets that are thought to be susceptible to manipulation. The NFL does not have a formal agreement with the CFTC, according to Miller, but believes the regulator appreciates the league’s views.
“Polymarket welcomes the opportunity to engage with players across sports to protect the integrity of the games and the overall fan experience,” a Polymarket spokesperson told ESPN in a statement. Kalshi declined to comment.
The CFTC, under new chairman Michael Selig, has been more aggressive than the types of markets allowed. Selig told ESPN that he believes trading in sports results has always been legal, but previous administrations did not allow it. Since sports have become part of the regional market, Selig says it’s important for the agency to work with teams to understand what can be cheated.
“If the league is telling us that the contract is going to be easily cheated and the exchange is trying to verify that, of course we’re going to assess the risks there,” he said. “But the league is in a very good position to make those calls, so we’re going to give the league a lot of respect on these types of issues.”
A bipartisan Senate bill introduced last week seeks to ban prediction markets from allowing transactions that mimic sports betting. Prediction markets have also faced legal battles with government regulators, who argue that the companies offer illegal gambling.
Miller said the NFL has yet to come across any new proposed rule, and the league’s position remains that the predicted markets need more observations before they can take action.
“We want to make sure that whatever is done in this area, we can do everything in our power to protect the integrity of the sport,” he said.
MLB, NHL, UFC and MLS have established partnerships with prediction markets.
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