Odd things happen in markets. Last Monday, 15 minutes before Donald Trump announced that “productive talks” with Iran had taken place, oil traders placed bets of half a billion dollars on the future price of oil. Trump’s announcement caused crude oil prices to fall, and it seems that some people knew the announcement was coming, so some profit-making took place. Do not be jealous; some people are just born lucky.
We don’t know if these deals were made with the prior knowledge of political development, but they were a hell of a coincidence. It all seems “really unusual”, an oil analyst told the BBC.
Businesses with dubious timing, if they were placed with insider knowledge, would be just part of a wider betting bonanza that reduces political outcomes to self-sustaining opportunities. Take Polymarket, an online prediction market that started in the early 2020s and allows you to bet on anything from the outcome of the Super Bowl, whether Trump will attack another country.
Before the US attacked Iran, several new reports on the platform predicted the time of the US / Israeli attacks, 24 hours before they happened. A similar trend was identified after the American revolution in Venezuela in January. One account, set up just days before the military operation, made more than $400,000. As a result of these transactions, people naturally ask whether it is possible for the president of the United States or his associates to obtain illegal profits through political power, while they find that it is almost difficult to answer that question. The White House denies that the Trump family has any conflicts of interest.
Betting markets are becoming increasingly popular because their operations have low barriers to entry and are difficult to track. The wagers are made in cryptocurrency such as bitcoin, and therefore there are few bank steps to be followed or restrictions. And the platforms are decentralized, they are open to global users and it is very difficult to manage and close the international from one place. Financial markets have always created and sold speculative instruments based on the expectation of movements in the price of an asset, but betting markets turn the future itself into an asset that you can bet on based on an unlimited number of conditions, up to and including how the arrows will be held.
It wouldn’t be anyone’s guess if some of the questionable badges come directly from the shamelessly self-sufficient Trump administration. Since Trump took office, his family has launched several cryptocurrency businesses. A New York Times survey earlier this year found that Trump made at least $1.5bn in the first year of his second term.
This doesn’t suggest that Trump is actively stalking people, but that wouldn’t seem inconsistent with the ethics he’s shown so far. There are other possibilities; is an extended show surrounded by a large group of independent and professional people. It’s unheard of for people to just jump in and take the news he’s spewing out, then act on it and pass it on.
But there is a broader cultural shift, which is being coordinated in the White House and broadcast on gambling platforms. One to make money as much as possible, from the president to your Internet presence, and to change the public signs. There is promise that anyone can achieve success similar to that of responsible hustlers, which of course comes from being canny, creative and making the best deals possible. It’s an entire industry. Global influencers are selling dubious investment platforms, with the obvious suggestion that this is the way to unlock the luxury they post on social media. The selling point is that community winners have a formula, a secret sauce, an insider’s edge, and that you need one too.
The basis of the desire for these plans is something long-term: the ever-increasing possibility of being able to live a respectable nine-to-five life that gives you a mortgage, savings, job stability, and a dignified retirement. And with this, came the denigration of the culture of working for a man, the glorification of being your own boss, not being a mug with a desk job. Improve your income, have less confusion to think about the betting markets, earn income, even the president of the US has it!
Now there is a kind of untruth that Trump has introduced into the world. His treatment of everything as entertainment and spectacle has made politics a part of sports. He is at once a versatile actor and a powerful circus performer in a world where every day is a mystery: will there be peace, or will people die? Place your bets.
But US politics has always been incredibly desperate to control the financial interests of the elite. Members of Congress are allowed to buy and sell stocks, while being privy to all kinds of negotiations and regulations regarding publicly traded industries. Nancy Pelosi has amassed so much wealth during her tenure that the “Pelosi tracker” allows others to follow her activities and emulate her in order to make the incredible gains she has made. The right to make money goes beyond the office. Hillary and Bill Clinton used decades of public service as a money-making machine, earning hundreds of millions of dollars in speeches and talks, raising more money than they will ever need.
The question hanging over the course of Trump’s second term is whether he represents an acceleration of the powers of his predecessor, or an entirely new type of politician. The answer can be both, depending on the situation. By openly raising his and his family’s wealth, he has defied norms that considered profiting from political office acceptable, but not the unabashed transformation of the White House into a private business. The way he used the office to sell the Trump brand he broke with political decorum, but agreed to accelerate a broader culture of dishonest greed.
We may not know if these questionable market transactions are directly connected to Trump, but we do know that he is well suited to the current environment – an unruly, abusive, speculative political culture that is becoming one big, global, get-rich-goods scheme.
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