On March 20, Iran fired two long-range missiles at the Diego Garcia base, a target long thought to be outside the declared range of about 2,000 kilometers.
Iran’s long-running probe – which US officials say fell short of its target – is the first time Tehran has demonstrated the ability to reach Diego Garcia.
For years, Iran has claimed that its missile range was closed to about 2,000 kilometers. That view now seems even more unpopular.
The test exposes a truth that can no longer be ignored, experts said at this week’s Eye for Iran event: Tehran’s missile capabilities are expanding far and wide in the Middle East, its tough military has resisted sustained attacks by the US and Israel, and the conflict is now colliding with key global pressure points – from the Strait of Hormuz to the main military advantage.
The threat is no longer a fantasy
Iran’s nuclear missile threat is no longer a mystery — it’s real and growing.
Both Janatan Sayeh, an expert on Iran at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), and Farzin Nadimi, a defense and military expert with the Washington Center for Near East Policy, warned of this. An eye for Iran podcast that Tehran’s capabilities now expand beyond the previously mentioned limits – which can reach as far as the United Kingdom.
“This should not be surprising,” Sayeh said. He noted that Iranian missiles and drones have been used on European soil by Russia.
“The difference now is that the regime itself can produce them directly from Iran’s territory,” said Sayeh.
The change marks a major shift — from an indirect power projection to a long-range capability — that underscores Iran’s growing weapons reach.
Although unsuccessful, the Diego Garcia strike represents a move from regional to global – with direct implications for Europe and beyond.
In his State of the Union address last month, President Donald Trump warned that Iran’s missile program could soon put the United States out of reach – a claim that, thanks to recent developments, is no longer speculative.
Missile cities: A place for sustainable weapons
That expanded reach is supported by infrastructure designed not just to prevent — but to endure.
Nadimi said Iran has long had the technical capability to expand its missiles, including through ballistic missile and dual-use technology.
More importantly, he described a vast network of complex underground structures – one the size of a small city – hidden deep in the mountains and fortified buildings, making them incredibly difficult to destroy.
These so-called “missile cities” are often placed near – and in some cases below – public buildings, including residential and public spaces, which complicates targeting while increasing their survivability.
“Many of these missile bases are so deep that even the most powerful bombs cannot reach them…some are as deep as 500 meters and the size of a small town,” Nadimi told Eye for Iran.
Strait of Hormuz: Global Stakes
The effects go beyond military power.
The Strait of Hormuz – through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes – has emerged as a central pressure point in the conflict.
War-related disruptions have already stabilized the global energy market, with prices reacting to the uncertainty of shipping routes and potential surges.
Joel Rubin, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Obama administration, warned at Eye for Iran that Iran’s actions reflect a broader strategic dimension.
“This is how Iran behaves,” he said. “They are willing to destroy and destroy the world economy to protect themselves.”
Dr. Walid Phares, a foreign policy expert, adviser to past US presidents and author, described the Strait not as a military training ground, but as a military operational zone – where Iran’s coastal missile systems could cause direct intervention by the US to maintain global shipping lanes.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that the United States will reopen the Strait “with or without” joint support – emphasizing the importance of economic conditions.
“That tells me that the ground forces, the limited special forces, the Marines, we now understand, can be used,” said Phares, author of Iran: The Imperialist Republic and US Policy.
Languages as a strategy, not a solution
Although diplomatic efforts are ongoing, both sides appear to be using negotiations as part of a broader strategic game.
Rubin pointed to a limited political and economic window in Washington, suggesting that the US is unlikely to sustain prolonged negotiations as domestic pressure mounts.
Phares also framed the talks not as a way to de-escalate, but as part of the same track where talks take place alongside military preparations.
In this environment, conversations don’t take the place of elevation – they are happening within it.
To the top: forces and objectives
On the ground, signs of a serious military move are becoming more visible.
The Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 more ground troops to the Middle East, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal and Axios – a move that would expand the US military presence in the region.
The deployment would include infantry and armored units, adding to the thousands of Marines and paratroopers already in the ranks.
Officials say the troops could be deployed in Iran’s sensitive area, including near Kharg Island, a key oil export hub that handles most of the country’s imports.
It is reported that military planners are also developing methods for “last resort,” including a large-scale bombing campaign and the possible use of ground forces.
No final decision has been made – but the balance and level of energy points to preparedness, not restraint.
Another place is changing
At the same time, regional power is beginning to change.
The United Arab Emirates has publicly warned – in a Wall Street Journal op-ed by its representative in Washington – that a ceasefire is not enough, showing a growing consensus among US allies on the need for a decisive outcome.
In Lebanon – for a long time considered strongly within the sphere of influence of Iran – increasing pressure on Hezbollah, moves to undermine the influence of the IRGC, and the removal of the Iranian ambassador in Beirut points to possible cracks in the area of Tehran.
For many observers, the attempt to beat Diego Garcia marks a turning point because of what it revealed: a network and a possible goal, all visible.
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