Aviation markets are entering an even more volatile state as disruptions across the Middle East remove critical energy from the system, forcing rapid network changes and driving upward pressure on rates.
The immediate impact was the overwhelming silence of the accessible elevator. Carriers in the Middle East, which play a key role in connecting Asia, Europe and Africa, have reduced operations significantly, with some periods showing capacity drops of up to 49% on a weekly basis.
Globally, energy remains below pre-crisis levels, still down about 11% compared to early February, although it has recovered somewhat from earlier losses. Although airlines are increasing direct services on other routes, including Asia-Europe and transpacific routes, this increase is not enough to offset the loss of regional connectivity in the Gulf.
Strong demand and rising costs are driving rate pressure
The result is a tightening market where demand continues to outstrip supply. Air cargo volumes were already increasing steadily, with global demand rising by around 6-8% in the first months of the year.
This combination of limited capacity and steady demand is now feeding directly into prices. Fares on key routes have risen sharply, with Asia-Europe fares increasing by around 30% in recent weeks, while India-Europe and India-US routes have seen increases of between 50% and 80%. In some cases, rates have more than doubled compared to pre-disruption levels.
India is particularly affected, where capacity reductions of up to 70% at main entrances have resulted in a severe shortage of available elevators. With limited capacity to transport goods and reduced times of the wide body, competition in the area has intensified, raising prices and making it more difficult to maintain capacity in the short term.
Rising fuel costs add more pressure. Jet fuel typically accounts for 30–40% of an airline’s operating costs, and the associated increase in disruption is passed on to commodity prices, fueling the inflationary trend.
Backlogs plague supply chains around the world
Beyond pricing, the impact of performance is becoming more visible across global supply chains. Cargo backlogs are building at origin, transit and destination as goods compete for limited space.
At the same time, disruption to the ocean freight network is driving a shift in air freight, adding more demand to an already tight market.
Although some strength is returning, recovery is expected to be slow. Rescheduling flights, rescheduling and clearing accumulated backlogs will take time, meaning disruptions are likely to continue even if conditions stabilize soon.
Overcoming the interference of air cargo
By combining strong carrier relationships with real-time market visibility, Metro conserves energy across restricted trade routes, identifies efficient alternatives and implements multi-modal solutions where traditional networks are under pressure.
With Metro’s MVT platform, customers benefit from improved tracking, critical visibility and data-driven decision-making, helping to maintain control even when conditions change. Where disruption is severe, Metro is working proactively to reschedule, manage backlogs and protect transit times.
With global operations, local expertise and the ability to quickly adapt as the network changes, Metro helps you stay ahead of disruption rather than reacting to it.
To discuss your air freight needs or contingency planning, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director,
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