Fed Chair Powell Warns: Another Supply Chain Scare Is Coming

• The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 7% year-to-date through March 30, 2026, while the VIX rose to 30.61 as energy shocks driven by WTI crude oil above $100 a barrel threaten to reverse inflation. Core PCE inflation reached 128.394 in January 2026, its highest figure in 12 months, while the yield of the 10-year Treasury rose from 3.97% in late February to 4.44%, suppressing the values ​​of the technology-heavy fund.

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has warned of a looming energy shake-up that could push rates away from the 2% target, leaving the Fed on hold with the fed funds rate at 3.75% as energy prices and signs of market volatility mount.

• A recent study showed one habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from a dream, to a reality. Read more here.

Jerome Powell gave a clear warning that markets cannot afford to ignore: “Now we have another fear coming.” The Fed chair gave a sequence that should sharpen the attention of every investor to the second quarter of 2026.

Powell’s plan is correct. Inflation has fallen sharply in 2023 and 2024, getting closer to the Fed’s 2% target at the end of 2024. Then came the interest rate shock, which turned out to be less than a scare. Some countries did not fully retaliate, and what was implemented was less than what was announced, meaning that the impact of tariffs “had fallen more here in the US and not in other countries.” With inflation around 3%, and somewhere between 0.5 and 0.8 percent of the points generated by tariffs, the US was “closer to 2% this whole time.”

Now Powell sees a third shock forming: the fear of power. The data backs that up. WTI crude oil has been above $100 for days, and that is the first sign of energy-driven inflation.

Read: Data Shows One Trend Boosts America’s Savings and Increases Employment

Many Americans grossly underestimate how much they need to retire and overestimate how much they are prepared for. But the data shows that people with the same habit have more than double the amount of those who do not save.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is already absorbing the pressure. SPY is down -7% year to date through March 30, 2026, and down -8% in the past month. The VIX tells a similar story: the fear index sits at 30.61, up 54% over the past month, and at the 95.7th percentile over the past 12 months.

The bond market continues to price. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 3.97% in late February to 4.44% due March 27, 2026, a strong move that is weighing on forecasts for the heavyweight names that dominate the SPY. Information Technology alone represents 32% of SPY’s weighting, which makes the fund sensitive to multiple exposures.

Core PCE, the measure of inflation chosen by the Fed, reached 128.394 in January 2026, its highest figure in the 12-month dataset. Consumer confidence does not provide a cushion: the sentiment index of the University of Michigan registered 56.6 in February 2026, deep in the area of ​​pessimism.

Powell’s stance is always deliberate. “We think our policy is in a good place to wait and see,” he said, with the fed funds rate fixed at 3.75% from December 2025. But waiting and seeing only works if the energy crisis remains under control. Powell himself admitted: “No one knows how big it will be – it’s too early to tell.” That uncertainty is exactly what the VIX reflects. Broad index traders should watch oil prices and core PCE closely over the next two months.

Many Americans grossly underestimate how much they need to retire and overestimate how much they are prepared for. But the data shows that people with one habit have more twice the salvation of those who do not.

And no, it has nothing to do with increasing your income, saving money, cutting coupons, or reducing your lifestyle. It’s much more straightforward (and powerful) than any of that. In fact, it is surprising that many people do not accept this method because of how easy it is.