The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said on Monday that he sees no risk of contagion in the private credit markets at this time that could spread to the broader financial system, although the central bank is watching the situation carefully.
“We’re looking for connections to the banking system, and things that might make someone infected. We don’t see that right now,” Powell said at a Harvard University event.
“What we’re seeing is a correction … and certainly there will be people losing money and things like that, but it doesn’t look like there’s any reaction to a system-wide event,” he said.
Concerns have gripped the private debt markets in recent months as many investors moved to pull out their money after private lender Blue Owl Capital (OWL) collapsed. The incident sparked a series of ransom demands. At the same time, the bailout increased as fears grew that AI could make software business models ineffective, which could lead to an increase in failures among companies that seemed safe. Many private equity lenders have obligations for software companies.
Powell also said rates are “in a good place” in response to oil price shocks from the Middle East.
“Nobody knows how big it’s going to be,” Powell said. “It’s too early to know. We think our policy is in a good place to wait and see.”
Read more: How oil prices move in your wallet, from gas to groceries
Powell has acknowledged a series of shocks to inflation over the past six years, first with the pandemic, then tariffs, and now oil prices.
He estimated that the fees add somewhere between 0.5% and 1% to inflation, but it will be a one-time price increase that will pass. Absent tariffs, inflation would be closer to 2%, Powell said. Inflation measured by the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index excluding volatile food and energy prices, has remained around 3%.
Separately, New York Fed president John Williams, who is vice-chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee and holds a permanent seat, said on Monday that he expects the rise in oil prices to increase overall inflation in the coming months, but the effects should change slightly later this year, assuming that oil prices have fallen after the end of hostilities.
He also noted that the war itself could cause inflation – by increasing average costs and commodity prices – and reduce economic growth.
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