Angola and Ghana get negative market share as US cuts Nigeria’s price by 47%

New data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that imports fell by 47.16 percent month-on-month, falling from 3.149 million barrels in December 2025 to 1.664 million barrels in January. The drop of 1.485 million barrels marks one of the sharpest short-term contractions in the Nigerian portion of the US crude market in recent years.

The value of those imports showed a significant drop in volume. According to customs, Nigeria’s exports to the US dropped from $217.36 million in December to $115.99 million in January, equivalent to $218 million and $116 million respectively, at current exchange rates. Expenses, insurance and property prices also fell from $223.10 million to $118.95 million, highlighting the broader contract demand and business flow.

The narrowing gap between customs and CIF values, from $ 5.74 million in December to $ 2.96 million in January, suggests that the price of goods or insurance is low during that period, or the supply routes may be short.

The decline in Nigeria’s exports comes at a time of a sharp decline in US oil demand. Total US imports fell 5.1 percent, from 198.29 million barrels in December to 188.21 million barrels in January. In terms of value, total imports fell from $ 11.41 billion to $ 10.56 billion according to customs, strengthening the broad recovery in the world oil trade at the beginning of the year.

However, within Africa, the image is more competitive than shortening. While total African exports to America remained flat at 6.933 million barrels, other producers benefited at the expense of Nigeria.

Angola’s output fell from 575,000 barrels in December to 2.062 million barrels in January, while Ghana emerged as the new exporter, sending 738,000 barrels after reporting no measurable supply last month.

Libya, on the other hand, saw its exports drop significantly, from 2.137 million barrels to 1.086 million barrels over the same period.

Nigeria’s share of US imports has declined significantly, dropping from 1.59 percent in December to just 0.88 percent in January. This erosion highlights how quickly market share can change based on prices, materials and cleaning demand patterns.

Crude oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s exports to the United States, although its strength declined slightly as trade volumes fell. Total US imports from Nigeria stood at $183 million in January, down from $297 million in December. Crude accounted for between 63.4 and 65.0 percent of that total, compared with more than 73 percent the previous month.

At the same time, the US expanded its trade surplus with Nigeria, which rose from $84 million in December to $419 million in January. This change was driven by an increase in US exports to Nigeria, rising from $381 million to $602 million, even as imports from Nigeria fell sharply.

Across Africa, the US fell to a trade deficit of $503 million in January, reversing the surplus of $174 million recorded in December. Imports from the continent increased to $3.54 billion, while exports decreased to $3.04 billion.

Despite the decline in January, Nigeria remains the largest supplier of non-African goods to the United States for a long time. By 2025, Nigeria accounted for 52.2 percent of Africa’s exports to the Americas, providing 46.618 million barrels out of the continent’s total of 89.371 million barrels. This represents a decrease from 50.793 million barrels in 2024, but a higher share of total African exports to the Americas, as those exports fell.

The latest business figures are particularly impressive because Nigeria’s oil production is on the rise. Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reports production of 1.64 million barrels per day in January 2026, up from 1.55 million barrels per day in December. Yet increased production has not translated into strong US demand, suggesting that the strength of foreign markets outweighs the benefits of domestic supply.

Financially, the national oil firm reported a profit after tax of ₦385 billion in January, which is equivalent to about $260 million, even as revenue dropped significantly from ₦4.82 trillion in December to ₦2.571 trillion, or about $1.7 billion to $3.2 billion. The difference between profit and revenue reflects cost adjustments and operational excellence, but also indicates a stagnant earnings environment.

The drop in US imports from Nigeria comes at a time of changing trade policies and environmental thinking. The re-introduction of tariff-oriented measures under the US President, Donald Trump, including the increase in Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 percent to 15 percent by 2025, has increased the uncertainty in bilateral trade, especially for oil exports.

Although crude oil is exempt from these tariffs, the broader policy environment has influenced business sentiment and financing decisions.

Economist Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprises, played down the direct impact of the US tariffs on the Nigerian economy.

“Our trade with the US is not that important. If anything goes wrong, it’s not like it will have any significant impact on our economy.” he said.

Instead, he pointed to structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s business environment, noting its heavy reliance on crude oil exports and limited diversification. He also highlighted US visa restrictions as a very long-term obstacle.

“Travel disruptions reduce business transactions and inflows. That’s more important than long-term tariffs,” Yusuf added.

Taken together, the latest figures paint a complex picture for Nigeria: rising oil production at home, but falling demand from one of its traditional export markets. As the flow of global power continues to shift and new traders emerge, Nigeria is facing growing pressure to integrate its export markets with its trading partners.