The Iran war has shaken financial markets. See the impact of the conflict, in five charts

NEW YORK (AP) – The financial markets were devastated in the first two months of the year. Then came the war.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil is above $100 for the first time since the summer of 2022 and gasoline prices have risen. That was followed by a long period where the price of oil remained between $60 and $70.

The biggest issue in global stock markets in early 2026 was artificial intelligence – whether some companies were capitalizing on it and whether others would be made obsolete by the technology. Now, investors’ attention is on how long the war in Iran will last, how high inflation might rise and what that might mean for the economy. Dramatic intraday swings in indexes such as the S&P 500 are common.

The uncertainty brought on by the war is complicating interest rate decisions for the Federal Reserve, which has kept rates steady this year after cutting them three times late last year. Lowering prices will help the economy, but may also put upward pressure on inflation. Keeping them high would help fight inflation, but also put pressure on economic growth.

Here’s a look at how the markets changed in March:

Oil prices have been dictating the US stock market since the start of the Iran war. Brent crude, the benchmark for nearly a third of the world’s crude oil, shot from $70 a barrel to as high as $119 at times. Investors have been swinging back and forth between hopes that the war will end quickly and concerns that a protracted conflict will block oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf from global markets, which could cause a brutal burst of inflation.

OIL STAGE

By the end of February, drivers in many parts of the US were paying less than $3 for a gallon of gas. As of Tuesday, the national average had risen to $4 for the first time since 2022.

The jump in diesel, used in many freight and delivery trucks, is more visible, with the average gallon now at $5.45, up from about $3.76 a gallon before the war began, according to AAA.

“Americans (are) spending hundreds of millions of dollars on gasoline every day,” said Patrick De Haan, head of gasoline analysis at fuel tracking service GasBuddy.

GAS-GAS

The US stock market entered 2026 coming off three consecutive years of strong gains. Most international markets passed it in 2025 after lagging behind for several years.

With a decline of about 4.6%, the S&P 500 had its worst quarterly performance since 2022. The Nasdaq group, which has a heavy share of technology equipment, on Thursday closed more than 10% from the entire period set in October, a fall enough that professional investors called it a “correction.”

CHART-S&P

Not surprisingly, energy stocks were among the best performers in the S&P 500 for the month and quarter. Exxon Mobil had the biggest quarterly profit, according to FactSet. Other energy producers include Occidental Petroleum and Valero Energy.

Perhaps it’s fitting that the stock market ends the month with another extreme move, this time to the upside on renewed hope that the war may end sooner rather than later. However, such hopes have waxed and waned several times so far during the war.

STATE-NASDAQ

Investors typically flock to bonds and other safe assets when a global event threatens the economy. But in this case, the possibility of inflation due to the rise in the price of oil has led to the sale of debt and the corresponding violation of their products.

MONEY-JUDGMENT+BALLS

The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% in late February but rose 4.44% before falling slightly. That increase helped raise mortgage rates and other loans for US households and businesses. Traders now see little chance that the Fed will cut rates once this year.

What comes next is hard to predict. President Donald Trump has moderated talks on ending the war and threats to escalate it to focus on Iran’s power bases. The Iranians have downplayed Trump’s claims of progress in diplomatic talks.

TAKO-VIX

Iran has secured the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway from the Persian Gulf through which the world’s oil is transported in peacetime. As long as that is the case, analysts expect the oil and stock markets to continue to experience increasing stability.