Market_Recon_TSP1_KL
“A true leader always has something mysterious, which others cannot understand, but which keeps his people happy and breathing.”
– President Charles de Gaulle of France
Take it twice
Your favorite businessman, investor, economist, infantry NCO, hockey player and financial writer are enjoying a meal with someone special on Monday evening. He passed Wawa between his home last night. His eyes quickly caught sight of the price displayed on the store’s sign. The cheapest item, 87-octane gasoline, cost $4.29 a gallon.
It was a Sunday afternoon that I felt like a rope filling my tank for $3.99 a gallon at the same station. I looked at the Mobil station across the street: $4.29 a gallon for cash. Credit can cost you a penny more. Must be.
Inflation worries turn into growth fears. The perception that inflation has escaped “Pandora’s Box” will slow down economic activity itself as society prepares for more difficult times. That said, current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who has only about six weeks left in his post at the helm of the world’s largest bank, spoke at Harvard University on Monday. He is known for his constant disagreement with Pres. Regarding Trump’s monetary policy, Powell’s words wandered in an unexpected direction.
“Inflation expectations seem to be more stable in the short term, but still, it’s something that eventually we will probably face the question of what to do here. We haven’t faced it yet, because we don’t know what the economic consequences will be, but we will definitely take that broader issue into account when we make that decision.”
Powell said he thinks the Fed’s current target rate, which ranges from 3.5% to 3.75%, is “in a good place.” He said that before. He did not take advantage of high consumer prices for gasoline to push higher short-term rates. In fact, he went the other way in that matter. He said raising rates now could have a negative impact on the US economy down the road. He understood that this might be a temporary (I don’t dare say “temporary”) price rise due to temporary panic. Powell added, “By the time the effects of tightening monetary policy kick in, the oil price shock may be long gone, and you’re measuring the economy at the wrong time.”
Run, Forrest, Run…
Working in the dark hours on Tuesday morning, I see WTI Crude futures trading at $102 (per barrel). The futures traded at $106 overnight before relief arrived. It’s great to see oil prices coming off the highs. It seems unreal that the “good stuff” bought about $88 per barrel last week and $65 per barrel more than a month ago.
Treasury bills finally got a bid on Monday after going in the wrong direction for almost another month. The US 10-year note paid 4.34% on Monday, down 8 points for the regular program. The two-year report of the US paid 3.83%, also down by 8 points. I see those two products at 4.32% and 3.82% in a few hours until the bright orange orb makes its appearance in the east.
Real Branches
Readers may note that US equity index futures have moved higher overnight despite very bearish looking charts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Despite the fact that Asian stocks were lower on Tuesday and European stocks are opening slightly higher. Quarterly window dressing. This could be the reason this afternoon, even if the bonds continue this month, there will be less money in the distribution of the pension fund’s assets than there would be otherwise.
No. What is moving the US stocks early on Tuesday morning is the piece that ran through Wall Street Journal on Monday night. The Journal is, and now other agencies as well, are reporting that Pres. Trump has told those around him that he is committed to ending the war in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping that supports global trade. It is clear that the presidential circle, if this part is true, has decided that the air / naval / ground operation aimed at forcing the opening of the Strait will push the war outside the window of “six weeks” of the president for the completion of all plans.
Is the president pulling a “de Gaulle” here? It’s hard to say that. Algorithms push stock prices around now. The traffickers would better understand that the situation is still fluid, that the Strait will remain closed and that thousands of Marines and Airborne troops are standing ready now that there are 10,000 additional infantry troops on the way. Is the president softening his intentions? Or is this issue of disinformation ahead of the increase in the tempo of military operations? Both results are plausible.
It was only Monday (yesterday) when the US currency was sold again because of the president sending on social media that Iran is now led by a “reasonable” regime, but it is still threatening the infrastructure of oil and electricity if the Strait is not opened immediately. Perhaps this was at the same time that Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to Al Jazeera and said that the US would end the military operation within weeks.
Related: Market Bottoms Require Several Steps. We are still waiting for the first one.
Regardless…
The Iranian regime seems to have been vindicated by these reports. Overnight, the UAE military reported continued missile and drone attacks “across the country.” A Kuwaiti tanker carrying two million barrels of oil also ran aground off the coast of Dubai. The attack caused a fire in the ship which has since been extinguished. Perhaps most disturbing are reports that the Iranian government has begun killing its own people again, targeting opposition groups.
Catch the Rain
Stop the rain
Yes, we are miles from anywhere
And the spirit has no name
So call it what you want to call it
It’s still windy on the way
People tell me I haven’t changed at all
But I don’t feel the same way
And I hope you felt the same way
You can’t laugh all the time
– J. Taylor, Le Bon, Rhodes, A. Taylor, R. Taylor (Duran Duran), 1982
Blue Monday
It really wasn’t that bad. Not as bad as it sounded, though. I think some traders were just tired after the S&P 500 sold off for the seventh of nine days and for the 11th of 15 days.
Some traders are tired after what started as the sixth consecutive week for the US stock market. Some traders are tired of the same period to be done in the month so the Nasdaq Composite is down 8.3% and the S&P 500 is down 7.8%. Those two indexes closed Monday down 13.4% and down 9.4% from their highs. This has led some traders to worry less about the “just” correction and worry about something more serious, like a true bear market.
On Monday, the S&P 500 gave up just 0.39% while the Nasdaq Composite gave up 0.73%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 0.8%, while small caps were hit harder. The Russell 2000 lost 1.46%. What was hit hard on Monday, were semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was fried with a loss of 4.23% while the Dow Jones US Semiconductor Index was hammered for 2.66%. The losers in that area were Micron Technology (IN) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) . Those two names suffered losses of 9.9% and 7.5% respectively.
Width
Are you bad? It’s not great, but it’s not bad either. There is no fear. I would like to say that traders have kept their cool, but algorithms are not afraid. They are cold and merciless. That said, they weren’t quite as merciless on Monday. Seven of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs actually closed the day in the green, led by stocks. (45) and communication services (XLC) . Technology (XLK) and Industries (XLI) lead the losers.
Winners beat winners with a sweep on the NYSE and a tough run seven to five on the Nasdaq. The rising volume accounted for 46.1% of NYSE-listed structured business and 43.9% of Nasdaq-listed structured business.
Business figures were raised on the first day of the month/quarter, but only so much. Day-to-day, combined trading was up 6% across Nasdaq listings and up 2.9% across NYSE-listed stocks. Volume also expanded across members of the S&P 500.
Chart
Now the readers will see that the S & P 500 has been combining several times to confirm and confirm the renewal of livelihoods since February 26. Because of the relief meeting? Yes.
Do these presidential rumors fit the bill? Yes. We’ll see if it’s a trick and what comes next. I don’t trust anything now. As for charts, there is nothing close to strength in terms of Relative Strength or daily moving average variance. Both look like a plastic model of the city of Tokyo after the King Kong guys and Godzilla suits had their (probably a lot of fun) rumble on the movie set.
You’ll never Walk Alone
When you walk in the storm
Lift your head up
And don’t be afraid of the dark
At the end of the storm
There is a golden sky
And the sweet song of the silver lark
Go with the spirit
Walk in the rain
Go on, go on
With hope in your heart
And you can’t go alone
– Hammerstein, Rodgers (Gerry and the Pacemakers), 1963
Economy
(All Eastern Time)
08:55 – Redbook (Weekly): Finally 6.7% y/y.
09:00 – Case-Shiller HPI (Jan): We expect 1.5% y/y, Finally 1.4% y/y.
09:00 – FHFA HPI (Jan): Expected 0.1% m/m, Final 0.1% m/m.
09:45 – Chicago PMI (Mar): Expected 55.2, Last 57.7.
10:00 – JOLTs Job Opening (Feb): Finally 6.946M.
10:00 – JOLTs Resignation (Feb): Last 3.1M.
10:00 – CB Consumer Confidence (Mar): We expect 88, Last 91.2.
4:30 pm – API Oil Inventories (Weekly): Finally +2.3M.
The Fed
(All Eastern Time)
12:00 pm – Speaker: Chicago Fed Pres. Austin Goolsbee.
3:00 – Speaker: Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr.
Today’s Salary Highlights
(Consensus EPS Expectations)
Before Opening: (FDS) (4.38), (MKC) (.59), (SNX) (3.31)
After Closing: (TSA) (.28), (PVH) (3.30), (RH) (2.20)
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle did not have a position on any of the said defenses.
#Pump #Shocker #Godzilla #Chart #War #Hot #TheStreet #Pro