The S & P 500 Index ($ SPX) (SPY) today fell -0.75%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($ DOWI) (DIA) fell -0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($ IUXX) (QQQ) fell -1.18%.
Stock indexes fell this afternoon as the market dug in for the first oil price of $100+ since 2022, an important milestone reached as supply chain risks continue to dominate the energy sector.
Treasury Yields retreated after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that while the central bank is tracking recent increases in energy costs, its tools to deal with such supply shocks are being constrained.
The US Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing survey fell by -0.4 to -0.2, weaker than expectations for a 2.0 increase.
The US and Israeli forces have stepped up attacks on Iran today, while the UAE has issued multiple warnings and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have reported multiple Iranian drone and missile attacks as the war with Iran enters its fifth week. The Washington Post said the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, as about 3,500 sailors and Marines have arrived in the Middle East. President Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that he wants to “take the oil from Iran” and may seize the offshore island of Kharg Island, which would include US ground troops and signal a major escalation of the war.
Crude oil prices (CLK26) rose more than +2% today above 3 weeks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has stopped the flow of oil and gas due to Iran’s attack on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to reduce production because they cannot export from the region. Iran also wants to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, asking ships to provide a list of crew and cargo, as well as voyage information and bills of lading if they want to navigate the waterway. Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the record high of 2008 near $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed until March.
The International Energy Agency said last Monday that more than 40 power plants across nine Middle Eastern countries have been “substantially or severely” damaged, which could further disrupt global supply chains once the war with Iran ends.
Markets are discounting the 3% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
Overseas markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose +0.28%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed +0.24%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-month low and closed -2.79%.
Waiver Fees
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today rose +24 ticks. 10-year T-note yields fell -9.7 bp to 4.330%. June T quotes are rising today on the assumption that the ongoing war in the Middle East will lead to fuel shortages that will damage global economic growth, end inflation fears and possibly prevent the Fed from raising rates. Again, bearish expectations are supporting the T-notes after the 10-year yield dropped to a 3-week low of 2.295% today. T-notes added to their gains today after Fed Chair Powell said inflation expectations are well-established and the FOMC will meet its 2% target.
European government products are shrinking today. Germany’s 10-year yield fell -5.5 bp to 3.039%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -4.6 bp to 4.928%.
The Eurozone March economic sentiment index fell -1.6 to a 6-month low of 96.6, less than expectations of 96.7.
German Mar CPI (EU harmonized) rose +1.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y, well in line with expectations, with +2.8% y/y the biggest annual gain in two years.
Swaps are discounting a 52% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Software stocks are rallying today after last Friday’s decline. ServiceNow (NOW) rose more than +4%, and Atlassian (TEAM) and Workday (WDAY) rose more than +3%. Also, Datadog (DDOG), Adobe (ADBE), and Autodesk (ADSK) are up more than +2%. In addition, Intuit (INTU) and Salesforce (CRM) rose more than +1%.
Cybersecurity stocks are rallying today, recovering some of last Friday’s slide. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is up more than +6% to lead the gainers in the S&P 500. Also, Okta (OKTA), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), and Zscaler (ZS) are up more than +4%. Additionally, Fortinet (FTNT) rose over +2%.
Aluminum stocks are rising today after Iran’s attacks on aluminum facilities in the Middle East. Alcoa (AA) is up +11%, and Century Aluminum (CENX) is up +9%. Also, Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) and Constellium SE (CSTM) rose more than +3%.
Weakness in chipmakers and AI stocks is limiting gains in the broader market. Western Digital (WDC) fell more than -5% to lead the losers on the Nasdaq 100, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) fell more than -5%. Also, Micron Technology (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are down more than -4%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) and Intel (INTC) are down more than -3%. Additionally, ASML Holding NV (ASML), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) fell more than -2%.
United Therapeutics (UTHR) rose more than +13% after it announced that its study of Tyvasco to treat idiopathic fibrosis reached its primary endpoint, showing superiority over placebo.
Insmed Inc. (INSM) is up more than +5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight to a $212 price target.
TKO Group Holdings (TKO) rose more than +4% after Citizens started reporting on the stock with a market outperform rating and a $240 price target.
Biogen (BIIB) rose more than +2% after the FDA approved the high-quality Spinraza drug for spinal muscular atrophy,
Expedia Group ( EXPE ) rose more than +1% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from his $300 price target.
Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) fell more than -31% after reporting success data from a recent trial of its experimental treatment for thyroid eye disease of 36%/45% proptosis-adjusted placebo response, below expectations of 50%+.
Sysco ( SYY ) fell more than -11% to lead the S&P 500’s losers after agreeing to buy Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion, including debt.
Boston Scientific (BSX) fell more than -8% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to strong buy.
Income Statements (3/30/2026)
AirJoule Technologies Corp (AIRJ), AIRO Group Holdings Inc (AIRO), Arrive AI Inc (ARAI), Arrow Financial Corp (AROW), Bicara Therapeutics Inc (BCAX), DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc (DMAC), Fermi Inc (FRMI), HireQuest Inc (HQI), Inmune Inmune Bion Incree, Incre Inc. Progress Software Corp (PRGS), Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT), Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV), Riverview Bancorp Inc (RVSB), Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TR), TuHURA Biosciences Inc (HURA), Zspace Inc (ZSPC).
As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no (either direct or indirect) position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was published on Barchart.com
