Stock market winners and losers in one month in the US-Israel war against Iran

The US-Israeli attacks against Iran have triggered a series of retaliations and military escalation in the Middle East that has spooked global financial markets.

The conflict, now more than a month old, has wreaked havoc on business and energy markets, with stocks around the world facing varying degrees of exposure depending on how much they are exposed to — or benefit from — the turmoil.

Here are some of the winners and losers from the clash so far.

– Attracting investors: Oil and gas –

Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass, sending energy prices skyrocketing.

The price swings have also boosted the ratings of major energy producers.

Profit margins for these producers have increased because while oil prices have risen, extraction costs have remained stable, said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

As a result, investors have poured money into companies that look poised to profit from a stable environment of high prices.

“They see the conflict going on for a while,” Torres said. “That means oil prices will rise systematically over the next year or two.”

In European markets, BP led the movement with a 22.3 percent gain in the one-month period from March 27 – the last trading day before the strikes – to March 27.

TotalEnergies rose 16.7 percent and Shell rose 13.3 percent over the same period.

– Pulling back: Ministry of defense –

Global conflict is often a boon to defense contractors, and overall, 2026 has seen huge gains for arms manufacturers.

In the short term, several major defense companies have seen their share prices drop since the start of the Iran war, as the market grapples with possible supply chain problems.

Although weapons are being used at a rapid pace, due to the long lead time for procurement and production, there is a delay until any increased demand can be met.

Investors “don’t see a lot of new technology being introduced,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “Somehow we’re still using a lot of leftover bombs”

German company Rheinmetall saw its shares fall 17 percent between March 27 and March 27, while Thales fell 6.7 percent and RTX – formerly Raytheon Technologies – fell 6.4 percent.

– Facing strong winds: Aviation –

The airline industry has emerged as one of the hardest hit sectors, as the war forces the cancellation of many flights and a major shift around disputed airspace.

Adding to the operating woes is the rise in jet fuel prices, which has made profits all over the place.

Rising fuel prices are the biggest concern, but far from the only one, Stovall said.

“Close to the back is consumer confidence that has been affected by high prices at the pump for their cars, high prices when they try to make summer trips,” he told AFP.

Stovall also pointed to long lines at security checks at US airports, and increasing travel safety concerns, as reasons many people are cutting back on non-essential travel.

Lufthansa experienced a sharp decline of 19 percent, while International Airlines Group (IAG, which includes British Airways and Iberia) saw its shares fall 15.9 percent.

Low-cost Ryanair was also down 10.2 percent.

– Administrative stress: Financial sector –

Banking and financial services are also facing downward pressure as the conflict adds to global economic instability, and the effects of rising fuel prices ripple through the economy at all levels.

Torres, of Interactive Brokers, noted a trend in other countries to lower interest rates despite rising oil prices.

“I think people are more worried about the recession, and now they’re putting more value on the damaging effects of high crude oil prices, and how high interest rates are worsening private debt,” he said.

The recent rise in private equity lending, where non-banking entities such as private equity firms make loans to companies, has raised concerns that the rising default rate on these loans could have negative effects on the economy.

HSBC, which maintains a strong presence in global trade routes and emerging markets, saw its share price fall by 13.9 percent.

US banks JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America all saw their share prices fall by several percent compared to the start of the war, as investors braced for a period of lower lending activity and increased credit risk.

cf/aha/bgs