Your summer travel plans may soon be affected by the war in the Middle East.
In addition to widespread flight cancellations in the region, the ongoing conflict is driving up oil prices. High oil prices affect jet fuel prices, and how much airlines charge for travel.
Oil prices have risen above $100 a barrel, a sharp increase from $70 before the conflict began in late February. At the same time, jet fuel prices rose from $2.42 a gallon at the end of February to $4.64 on March 31.
If you have an upcoming trip, you may see flight costs go up because of the war in the Middle East. Here’s what we know about the fare increases so far and how you can still save on summer travel.
Read more: 5 ways oil prices over $100 a barrel can hit your wallet
Rising fuel prices can directly affect airline operating costs, which is why the price of your airline ticket can change. According to the International Air Transport Association, jet fuel and oil are the biggest costs for airlines around the world, making up about 30% of the cost of flights.
“These rising costs are likely to be reflected in ticket prices and passed on to airline travelers, especially long-haul, international routes,” Jesse Neugarten, CEO of Dollar Flight Club, a travel membership service designed to help save on flights, said in an email to Yahoo Finance.
Already, some airlines are warning – or already implementing – price increases due to the rapid rise in oil prices.
Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) increased fares in March due to fuel costs, calling the hike temporary. Air France-KLM, too, said it would increase prices for long-haul flights in response to higher fuel costs. Cathay Pacific has also announced an increase in fuel charges for tickets on certain routes, more than doubling the charge in some cases.
In the United States, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby predicted that the increase in fuel prices will lead to an increase in air fares, and “maybe it will start soon.” Kirby warned that fares could rise by 20% if jet-fuel costs remain high.
Reports already show that flight prices have increased across airlines since the beginning of the Middle East war, even if major airlines have not announced clear price changes.
The increase in air fares in response to oil prices is unprecedented. Airlines also increased fares as jet fuel prices rose due to sanctions on Russia following the start of its war in Ukraine in 2022. Now, demand remained high even as airlines increased ticket prices, due to a significant increase in travel following the pandemic.
Travel requirement
On top of jet fuel prices leading to higher airfares, demand can also play a role. Higher costs can leave airlines to cut flights or routes from their regular schedules, leaving travelers with fewer options when they’re ready to check-in.
But that demand may not be as strong as this year; economic uncertainty was already affecting travel demand in America even before the Middle East war. In its Travel Industry Outlook 2026, Deloitte said travel demand may “show signs of pressure.”
That doesn’t mean that the demand for travel has dropped completely. The report said: “Signs do not indicate a significant slowdown or decline in travel demand.” While some economic conditions may lead to a “plateau in travel metrics,” Americans across age groups and income levels continue to prioritize travel.
“Spring and summer are always peak travel times, and with major events like the World Cup in North America driving increased demand on certain routes, we’re likely to see higher ticket prices,” said Adam Morvitz, founder and CEO of point.me, in a letter to Yahoo Finance. “When there are more travelers competing with the same airlines, prices can go up quickly.”
You may not be able to do anything about global fuel prices or rising airline operating costs, but there are still some ways you can ensure you get the best deal on your next trip. Before you book, keep these points in mind:
If you have a rewards credit card and have been saving your points and miles, now would be a good time to add them.
If you have a general travel rewards card that earns points or miles that are redeemable within the issuer’s rewards program — such as American Express Personal Rewards or Chase Ultimate Rewards — you’ll have more options for spending your rewards. Usually, you’ll get the best value if you transfer details to partner airlines and book directly with the airline. But you can also find great deals through the provider’s travel portal, which you can run using rewards or a combination of rewards and cash.
Morvitz warns that the new jet fuel tariffs could affect award tickets, too, with higher taxes and points-based ticket prices. “In many cases, airline loyalty programs use the same fees to issue tickets … which can increase out-of-pocket costs even when you buy points.”
But using your data is still one of the best ways to save. “If interest rates go up, you usually get more value out of your points because you avoid higher fees,” Morvitz said. Some airlines are offering fixed award prices and lower taxes and fees, which can be very valuable right now.”
Some credit cards also offer other benefits, including annual credits for airline payments, emergency airline credits, additional discounts on airline travel, and more, which can help you reduce your overall expenses.
Read more: The best travel credit cards
Any time you plan a trip that involves air travel, it can pay to plan ahead. Don’t wait until the last minute to book your flight.
“I always recommend booking one to three months in advance for domestic travel and two to six months in advance for international travel,” Neugarten said.
You can also save money by staying flexible with your plans. For example, if you set a flight alert for your trip, you may find that leaving a day or two earlier, or returning on a different day, can make a big difference in the total ticket price. You might want to consider other airports near your destination, Neugarten said.
Read more: How to save big on your next vacation with travel credit cards
If you plan to travel later in the year, it may pay to book now if you think prices will go up. Choose a mode of transportation that allows you to get a refund or credit from the airline if you cancel your ticket. That way, if things change and the price of your trip ends up going down, you can get a lower price next time without penalty.
For example, if you fly on Delta Air Lines within the US or from the US to another destination worldwide, you can change or cancel your ticket without additional fees when you book a Delta Main Classic fare class or higher. Depending on the specific ticket you have, you will be eligible for an eCredit with Delta or a refund.
Other major airlines have similar rules, and award tickets with points often change as well. Be sure to read the fine print before reading so you know all your options.
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