Could your vacation flight be canceled due to lack of fuel?

Every day that passes since the start of the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the effect on the British people is increasing.

Could your vacation flight be canceled due to lack of fuel? That’s the question many people are asking after reports that the last tanker carrying jet fuel from the Middle East to the UK will arrive soon.

Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, warned of “the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June” unless the war ends quickly.

Since early April, Pakistan has told foreign pilots to bring as much fuel as possible on their return journey. The announcement comes as other Asian countries are suspending flights and European airlines are making plans to deal with shortages. So what can happen, what can happen and what are your rights? These are important questions and answers.

“The last ship carrying jet fuel from the Middle East to the UK” sounds scary. How worried should we be?

Knowing that there are often tankers from the Gulf region to the UK with jet fuel, but the latter is close to the port, it sounds worrying. But airlines, airports and governments are all pointing to other types of equipment – including in the US, Nigeria and the Netherlands.

But speaking to major UK and Irish airlines, they are confident there will be enough resources to cover the busy Easter period and the rest of April. In addition, the appearance is more difficult.

The Department of Energy Conservation and Net Zero said Independent: “Jet fuel continues to arrive in the UK. The UK receives imports of jet fuel from India, the US and the Netherlands as well as small amounts from other countries.”

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary told Sky News: “The fuel companies are happy that there will be no disruption until the beginning of May.

“But if the war continues, we risk supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and obviously we hope the war will end sooner than that and the supply risk will be eliminated.

“If the war ends in April and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, then there is no risk of supplying it. If the war continues, and the supply disruption continues, we think there is a reasonable risk that a low level – maybe 10 to 25 percent of our supplies – could be at risk until May and June.”

What’s happening soon?

This particularly affects parts of Asia, which are heavily dependent on aviation fuel supplies from the Gulf.

Vietnam and Philippines airlines are suspending some domestic and international flights.

If I were backpacking relying on Southeast Asian budget airlines, I would keep a close eye on airline reservations.

Pakistan has recently issued a Notice to Air Missions (“Notam”) which states: “Due to disruption of jet fuel supply, as a precautionary measure, airlines are advised to import more fuel and reduce jet fuel lift from Pakistan.”

What about British or European airlines flying from Asian cities?

Pakistan’s warning is important. There is no problem bringing fuel in a 90-minute hop from Dubai to Karachi. This is a practice known as “tankering”. But the 11-hour flight from Heathrow to Islamabad is different. Some airports may run out of fuel. If this were to happen – as is already the case in Cuba due to the US embargo – the planes will continue to fly, but they will usually stop in another place to take more fuel.

Ironically, with fuel in short supply, European airlines including British Airways and Virgin Atlantic are ramping up flights to Asia, cashing in on the quiet Gulf airspace.

We also heard about American and Scandinavian airlines canceling flights?

Yes, but that is very much a financial issue. Airlines that are not locked into low fuel prices are seeing their costs rise significantly. So United of the US and SAS, the Scandinavian airline, have announced the cancellation of thousands of flights between them – but they are profits that have gone from a small profit to a loss due to the rising price of aviation fuel.

Could we even face additional fees?

All the major airlines operating from the UK – British Airways, easyJet, Jet2, Ryanair and Virgin Atlantic – are locked in on the low fuel price. None of the airlines are willing to charge existing passengers.

There is no agreement to ask people who have paid in full for their flights to pay more. However, this is not the case with package holidays.

“Hedging” the price of gasoline comes at a cost and many firms choose not to lock in lower rates. They are therefore exposed to the full weight of almost double the price of oil. Under the Package Travel Regulations, travel firms are allowed to ask for more money if the “price of the passenger car caused by the price of fuel” has increased. There is no upper limit to the amount a travel agency can claim. But if the proposed fee is eight percent or more, then you have the right to get your money back.

The maximum rate is eight per cent, which represents £80 per £1,000 holiday.

Will we be paying more for our flights?

In the long term, higher rates may occur. Kenton Jarvis, chief executive of EasyJet, said Independent: “The industry has no choice. It’s a low-cost, highly competitive sector. We make about £7 a seat. If fuel goes up by £10, you have to respond.”

Is there such a thing as panic buying flights and holidays – and would you recommend it?

I never advise anyone to panic. However, there is an argument for committing to flights that you will take in the coming months with the knowledge that you will receive strong consumer protection. For example I just bought a £40 princely ticket to Cyprus in May, and one back to Georgia later that month.

I fully expect those flights to continue, but if the airline cancels I know that under airline passenger rights laws, the airline must offer me an alternative route at no additional cost.

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